The Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: a Panel Data Regression Analysis

Africa’s tourism potential is acknowledged to be significant but underdeveloped. This paper uses both cross-section data as well as panel data for the period 1996 to 2000 to identify the determinants of tourism arrivals in 43 African countries, taking into account the country of origin of tourists. The results strongly suggest that political stability, tourism infrastructure, marketing and information and the level of development in the destination are key determinants of travel to Africa. Typical “developed country determinants” of tourism demand, such as the level of income in the origin country, the relative prices and the cost of travel, are not that significant in explaining the demand for Africa as a tourism destination. It is therefore recommended that attention should be given to improving the overall stability of the continent and the availability and quantity of tourism infrastructure.